New Jersey's political landscape has undergone a remarkable transformation, and the 2024 presidential election showcased some of the most significant coalition shifts in the nation. These changes are now setting the stage for an intense gubernatorial race in 2025, raising intriguing questions about the future direction of these communities and their impact on national politics.
A Surprising Surge
The 2024 election saw an unexpected rise in support for President Donald Trump among non-white voters in the New York City metropolitan area. This development caught many political analysts off guard, leaving them wondering if Republicans can maintain this diverse coalition in the long run.
By analyzing municipal-level election results in New Jersey and combining them with data from the U.S. Census Bureau, we can gain a comprehensive understanding of where Democrats and Republicans have made the most significant gains in recent elections. Examining the changes since 2020, the most recent presidential election without Trump on the ballot, provides a clear picture of the evolving party coalitions.
Democratic Strength in New Jersey's Towns
Support for Trump has skyrocketed in densely populated, predominantly non-white, former industrial cities like Paterson, Perth Amboy, and Passaic in the New York City metro area. The Republican growth that had been slowly building since 2012 saw a dramatic surge in 2024.
Meanwhile, Democratic candidates have gained traction in New Jersey's shore towns, affluent suburbs populated by college-educated professionals, and retirement hotspots. These communities will serve as crucial testing grounds, determining whether this 12-year political realignment can withstand the Trump era.
However, the picture is far from simple. Different political figures often attract varying results, as seen in Republican Jack Ciattarelli's previous bid for New Jersey governor in 2021. His coalition looked quite different from the one that emerged for Trump in 2024.
The biggest question heading into future elections is whether these shifts represent a lasting transformation of state and national politics or are merely a Trump-specific phenomenon. These communities provide the perfect arena to find the answer.
Democratic Shifts Since 2012
Mantoloking: This nearly all-residential beach town of 331 people, located just south of the final stop on NJ Transit's Jersey Shore train line, has seen a notable shift. More than half of its residents work in finance or management, and the population working from home is well above the state average (45% compared to 13% statewide). The mean household income is an impressive $484,326, and the average sale price of homes in 2024 was a staggering $4.8 million. While still Republican territory, it exemplifies the shift among wealthier and more educated voters.
Short Hills: Perhaps best known for its eponymous shopping center, The Mall at Short Hills, this area has evolved into a thriving hub of aspiration. With a mean household income of $512,637, it boasts the second-highest income in the state. Among residents aged 25 and older, an impressive 60% hold advanced degrees, the highest share for any place of its size in New Jersey. Asian residents make up 38% of the population, with a significant Indian American presence.
Democratic Shifts Since 2016
Cape May Point: This small beach town at the southern tip of the Jersey peninsula has a predominantly older population, with a median age of 70.9. Home values are among the top 10 in South Jersey, at $1.4 million. Nearly all shops and dining are located in nearby Cape May city, a 10-minute drive away.
Frenchtown: Located on the banks of the Delaware River, Frenchtown is a charming river town and popular day trip destination known for its art galleries and boutiques. The Delaware and Raritan Canal trail, starting just north of town, is a favorite among pedestrians and cyclists. With a concentration of residents involved in arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations (the second-highest in the state), Frenchtown has a unique cultural appeal. Among adult residents, 41% are white with college degrees or higher, above the state average of 27%.
Democratic Shifts Since 2020
Avalon: A long-standing affluent shore town, Avalon has seen its population age, with a median age of 74.1. The average sale price of a home in 2024 was $2.8 million. Often mentioned by Ed McMahon on "The Tonight Show with Johnny Carson," Avalon has become a retirement hotspot.
Leisuretowne: This planned development, actively built between 1971 and 1986, has grown to 2,255 homes. With a current median age of 72.5, it serves as a retirement community in South Jersey.
Republican Shifts Since 2012
East Newark: Tucked under the Gov. Alfred E. Driscoll Bridge, one of the world's widest bridges at 15 lanes, East Newark is an industrial neighborhood with excellent accessibility to major highways. Large distribution companies like FedEx and Wakefern Food Corp. (known for its ShopRite subsidiary) have distribution centers here. Once a primarily Polish and Hungarian neighborhood, it has seen a significant increase in its Latino population, now at 71% (up from 38% in 2000). The mean household income is $91,696, below the statewide average.
A new 5-acre waterfront park opened this year in this compact town on the Passaic River, a step towards revitalizing this industrial area. The Clark Thread Company, once the nation's largest thread manufacturer, had a large campus here, with the property earmarked for redevelopment.
Two-thirds of East Newark's population is Hispanic/Latino, with majorities lacking U.S. citizenship and speaking Spanish at home. It has the largest Peruvian population and the fifth-largest Ecuadorian population by share in the U.S.
Republican Shifts Since 2016
Passaic: Home to the state's sixth-largest Latino population, 73% of Passaic's 70,000 residents are of Hispanic or Latino origin. It also boasts the largest Mexican population in New Jersey. With a high immigrant population, Passaic is firmly working-class, with 33% of its adult population lacking a high school diploma (compared to 9% statewide).
Heading south from downtown, towards the Passaic Park neighborhood, you'll find a large Orthodox Jewish population. While official numbers on religious adherents aren't available at the municipal level, Passaic likely has one of the top populations of Orthodox Jews in New Jersey. The Brook Haven Mall, marketed as the "largest kosher shopping mall in the U.S.," opened in 2021, a testament to the size of the Jewish population in the area.
Elizabeth: New Jersey's fourth-largest city, Elizabeth is a major transit hub for the New York metropolitan area. It hosts parts of Newark Liberty International Airport and Port Newark-Elizabeth Marine Terminal, one of the world's busiest container ports. The Goethals Bridge connects Elizabeth directly to Staten Island, making it a vital link between New Jersey and New York City.
Like East Newark, more than half of Elizabeth's population was not born in the U.S., and nearly two-thirds of residents speak Spanish.
Republican Shifts Since 2020
Perth Amboy: The unique clay bedrock of Perth Amboy made it a hub for East Coast terra-cotta production at the turn of the 19th century. Terra-cotta-detailed facades can still be seen around town, a reminder of the elegant skyscrapers built in Manhattan at the time. The Great Depression led to the sudden decline of the terra-cotta industry, and Perth Amboy has since reinvented itself.
Today, the city is 81% Latino, the third-highest share in the state. Half of its Latino population is of Dominican origin, one of the highest concentrations in the country. Perth Amboy is a melting pot, with the largest Dominican population outside New York City and Lawrence, Massachusetts. Its Little Lima neighborhood has the largest Peruvian population outside of Peru, and its Palestinian and broader Muslim populations are significant.
Despite these cultural riches, Paterson faces challenges, with a quarter of its population living in poverty and some of the highest crime rates in the state.
Author's Note:
Adam Noboa is a producer at NBC News with Steve Kornacki, bringing you this in-depth analysis of New Jersey's political landscape.
